Great article by our officemate in the Flack Block, Merran Smith who directs the New Energy Vision for Canada project at Tides Canada.

When oil goes out of fashion
The Toronto Star
By: Merran Smith

Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach recently asked a panel of experts to come up with a vision for the future of Canada’s oil-rich province. One of the key findings warns of a potentially radical shift in the world’s demand for Canada’s energy.

There’s no danger of Alberta running out of petroleum to sell to the world, the panel says. But will the world want it?

“We must plan for the eventuality that oilsands production will almost certainly be displaced at some point in the future by lower-cost and/or lower-emission alternatives,” the panel states. “We may have heavy oil to sell, but few or no profitable markets wishing to buy.”

These aren’t the words of environmentalists looking through green-tinted glasses. They come from former international trade minister David Emerson, chair of the Shaping Alberta’s Future panel, which included GE Canada CEO Elyse Allan, former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge, and former Stelco CEO Courtney Pratt, among others.

These luminaries from Canada’s top corporate boardrooms have concluded an energy revolution is already underway. Unfortunately, when it comes to preparing for this shift, Canada lags behind.

Our nation’s long-term energy strategy remains rooted in an assumption of ever-increasing global demand for our petroleum. Meanwhile, evidence mounts that this conclusion may be putting Canada at economic risk.

The United States and China — our current and future energy buyers — are making unprecedented renewable-energy investments to reduce their dependence on imported oil. Along with Europe and other major economies, they are working to heat and power their cities — and move people and cargo where they need to go — with energy sources that are clean, safe, renewable, abundant and available closer to home.

China recently committed to place one million electric cars on the road per year. By 2020, that same nation’s high-speed rail network is expected to connect all cities with populations over 500,000, which will slash domestic aviation and the petroleum it requires. Meanwhile, declaring that “we can break our dependence on oil,” in late March U.S. President Barack Obama pledged $2.4 billion in grants for electric vehicle research. The funds were part of his goal to roll one million battery-powered cars onto America’s roads by 2015.

Around the same time, the European Commission kicked off a program to purge Europe’s cities of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. Under that policy, half of petroleum-fueled cars and trucks will be gone from Paris, Rome, Barcelona, Athens and dozens of other major centres by 2030. Twenty years later — by about 2050 — these cities will be freed forever from the smog, noise and soot of internal combustion engines.

Does anyone else see a trend here?

Leading economies are working to rapidly transition off hydrocarbons and reorganize their cities and societies to provide energy services that are environmentally and socially benign. These countries are training the brightest, hiring the best, incubating new technologies, and moving rapidly into a future that could look very different than the present. They are also spending money: Last year, global investment in clean technology topped $243 billion, according to the World Economic Forum — an increase of more than 30 per cent over the previous year.

Make no mistake: China and other markets will, in the short term, increase their oil imports. But as the Emerson report suggests, a real possibility exists these economies will eventually take advantage of the inevitable mass commercialization of more nimble, scalable and sustainable innovations brought to market by nations investing today in clean-tech research and development.

Recent research conducted by Stanford University and the University of California suggests this kind of future is plausible. The peer-reviewed study concludes that the world can meet all of its new energy needs with wind, water and solar by 2030, and can replace all pre-existing energy sources — such as nuclear and coal — with these renewable sources by 2050.

While some provinces are implementing good transition policies — such as Ontario’s Green Energy and Green Economy Act, and B.C.’s carbon tax — Canada lacks an overarching game plan that will see our businesses prosper and effectively compete into this new era. While our competitors invest in this future, our federal government has slashed support for renewable energy R&D in favour of risky carbon capture and storage projects.

Our nation is at a crossroads. Petroleum will certainly play an important role in our lives and our economy as we navigate this transition. But if Canada continues to place hydrocarbons at the centre of its economic strategy and energy-planning future, a rapid global shift away from these fuels could jeopardize our long-term economic stability, public services, and quality of life.

All Canadians — the energy sector, environmental groups, the faith community, labour organizations, heath advocates, finance and insurance sectors, aboriginal leaders and other Canadians — now have both an opportunity and obligation to come together to chart a new course for this country.

The task will be far from easy. But as Emerson’s report from Alberta suggests, we can — and must — create a national energy vision that positions Canada to prosper and lead through this revolution. It is a national mission — our national imperative — that should unite us all.

Merran Smith directs the New Energy Vision for Canada project at Tides Canada, a national charitable foundation.

Click here to view the original article on the Toronto Star.